We have a pair of NFL games this Saturday, and naturally, we have a player prop for each of them. We’re loving these spots for the two pass-catchers on our radar. Let’s get the Week 16 weekend started right.
Pat Freiermuth came up all week for me, and I’m quite surprised we’re able to get him at this number.
Ok, I can slightly understand this line, it’s Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Still, Rudolph has targeted Freiermuth 13 times in his past two appearances, yielding eight catches.
Freiermuth is facing a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the most receptions per game to TEs, and overall their secondary has been vulnerable to passing success.
Books have the Steelers top TE at a very juiced 2.5 receptions line, suggesting they see 3+ coming his way. When the ‘Muth operates with that type of passing volume, he’s over this line in 74% of his games dating back to the start of last season, averaging 43.8 yards/game.
Oh, and this man has loved Cincy. He’s over in four straight games, averaging 78.5 yards per game. That includes a 9-120 game against them just a few weeks ago.
Stefon Diggs over 67.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
Diggs and the Bills should be in for a big evening against this porous Chargers secondary. Los Angeles is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt, the fourth-most passes of 20+ yards per game, and the third-most passing yards in the NFL.
Diggs has been quiet of late, but I like taking a chance on him popping here. Books are expecting more involvement out of Diggs on Saturday, pricing his receptions line at 6.5, juiced to the under. That to me suggests 5-6 receptions at minimum are coming Diggs’s way, and when he finds that, he hits this line with ease.
When Diggs has caught 5+ balls, he’s over this line in 29 of his past 35 games, averaging 93.3 yards/game. That’s the type of consistency I love to see against a soft opponent.
He’s the most reliable receiver on this team by far and should be able to break off a few chunk plays in the air to help us hit this over.
