Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Player Props & Picks (1/6/24)
Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens player prop picks & odds for the (1/6/24) matchup
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks
In the first game of our NFL Saturday doubleheader, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to face the Baltimore Ravens in a game that Pittsburgh desperately needs for playoff positioning. A win won’t clinch a playoff spot, though, as they’d need help from some other teams. The Ravens, meanwhile, will be resting several starters as they have already clinched the AFC North and the top seed in the conference.
Player prop markets will certainly be affected by those motivational factors, so keep that in mind when selecting which wagers to place. In this article, I’ll provide analysis for some of my favorite player prop angles in this AFC North matchup. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.
Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-115 PointsBet)
During their current two-game win streak, the Steelers have leaned heavily on top running back Najee Harris with 19 and 27 carries. Over those two games, the Steelers have an eye-opening -17% pass rate over expectation as they have opted not to put the ball in the hands of Mason Rudolph as often as possible.
I expect the Steelers to operate with a run-heavy offense once again this week, especially as the Ravens’ relative defensive weakness is against the run. They’re top three in pass defense EPA and success rate but outside the top 12 against the run in both metrics. They’re also expected to be without their top two defensive linemen, Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce, making it easier for the Steelers to establish their run game.
The expected game script here works in the favor of Harris, as well. Since Week 9, Jaylen Warren leads the Steelers with a 52.2% snap rate when they find themselves in trailing game scripts. However, Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite in this game, and at the very least we should see a neutral game script for most of this one.
Charlie Kolar Anytime Touchdown (+700 BetMGM)
Week 18 always provides opportunities for longshot touchdown props on unheralded players, and I love this spot for Charlie Kolar. The second-year tight end out of Iowa State caught his first career touchdown from Tyler Huntley in garbage time last week with the Ravens enjoying a huge lead, and the duo have the opportunity to continue to build on their connection here.
Isaiah Likely has performed admirably well in replacing Mark Andrews as the Ravens’ top tight end, and I expect Baltimore to hold him out this week to keep him healthy for the playoffs. That would open up a huge opportunity for Kolar against a Steelers defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends since Week 8.
Kolar is an athletic player who ran a 4.67-second 40-yard dash and tested with an 88th percentile speed score. At 6-foot-6, 258 pounds, he’s also an easy red-zone target for Huntley when the field condenses near the goal line. The odds vary significantly here with Kolar as low as +350 on FanDuel, so make sure you’re getting the best available number.
George Pickens Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Mason Rudolph hasn’t been shy about pushing the ball downfield to George Pickens, and the second-year wide receiver has totaled 11 catches for 326 yards across Rudolph’s two starts. However, these were two clear ceiling games, and Pickens is only over this receiving yardage number in 8 of 16 games this year and 4 of his last 10 games.
The Ravens have utilized two-high safeties at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL since Week 12 per FantasyPointsData, which allows them to take away explosive downfield passing plays. Pickens will be a top priority for this defensive backfield, even without multiple starters, and the depth in the Ravens secondary will have an awesome opportunity to prove themselves here.
